Gonzalo Bernardos: “If you want to buy a house, hurry up, you will save money”

We share an interview from Fotocasa with the economist, analyst and professor at the University of Barcelona Gonzalo Bernardos.

According to Gonzalo Bernardos, the second half of 2021 will be "good" and next year even "better". The economist affirms that the residential market has gone from recession to expansion in a short time due to low interest rates, the great availability of mortgage loans, high savings and the inexistence of good investment alternatives.

What will happen to housing prices in the future? What are the differences between the current situation and the one that generated the housing bubble? What do real estate professionals need to do to make the most of the situation?

Here are his thoughts on these and other questions.

The market situation after the summer

In June of this year, Gonzalo Bernardos was predicting a "new real estate boom" and the truth is that he was not at all wrong. Banks are offering more credit than expected, families are beginning to regain confidence and want to allocate their savings to assets other than financial ones.

"This combination is positively affecting home sales and, to a lesser extent, prices," says the economist, going on to state that "we are in the prelude to a great expansion of the residential market".

As we reported in our blog at the beginning of August, this is the best time to invest in real estate assets.

Differences with the era of the real estate bubble

For the economist, the voices that warn of the danger of a new real estate bubble are mistaken because "for it to exist (...) it must take several years for prices to rise a lot". In his opinion, this year they will only rise by 5%.

The big differences that Gonzalo Bernardos finds in relation to the bubble stage are two: "the number of housing starts and the volume of credit granted by financial institutions".

As an example, he comments that "in 2021, at the most, 125,000 units will start to be built; on the other hand, in 2006, 762,540 units were started". Regarding financing, "in July 2021, banks gave 5,971 million euros to families to buy housing; on the contrary, 14 years ago they granted them 14,165 million euros (137.2% more)".

Evolution of prices for home sales and purchases

In the coming months, real estate transactions will increase by 25% and prices by 5%. Bernardos' forecast for 2022 is that "the increase in transactions will amount to 15% and the sales amount will grow by 10%".

Until now, prices had been maintained due to "the existence of an increase in supply generated by people who have had the need to sell, homes coming from inheritance and families who have sold one to buy another (demand for improvement)".

New challenges for real estate agencies

Commenting on the general situation of the real estate sector, Gonzalo Bernardos highlights that "it is one of the (...) that has made the most progress in terms of quality of service in the last two decades", affirming that "the profession has changed a lot and for the better".

As is already the case in our Ibiza real estate agency, "professionals make massive use of new technologies, offer online and offline services indistinctly and put the client at the center of their profession".

Therefore, it is essential "to offer three options to customers: face-to-face, almost completely virtual or hybrid service". We encourage you to learn more about our online real estate services in this regard.

You can read the full interview at this link.